BVL Logistics Indicator Q4: Winter Blues and Spring Awakening?

The Federal Association of Logistics (BVL) e.V. presents the BVL Logistics Indicator for the fourth quarter of 2020. Prof. Dr.-Ing. Thomas Wimmer, the Chairman of the Board of BVL, comments on the results of the study. The tightening measures due to Corona and the impending lockdown primarily fuel uncertainty.

Comment by Prof. Thomas Wimmer,
Chairman of the Board, Federal Association of Logistics (BVL)

“Does the lockdown blues add to the winter blues at the end of the year? Will there be a spring awakening of the economy? Until the end of last month, we were pleased with the V-shaped development of the economic curve, and even now, industry and trade assess the current business situation positively. It is even above the normal value in the sub-indicator of demand for logistics services – almost at pre-crisis levels. This is very impressive.

Business Expectations for 2021 Cautious

Equally remarkable is that the business expectations for the next six months are again downward-oriented – just like at the turn of the year 2018/2019. Does this assessment reflect a purposeful pessimism or is it a result of the political discussions about tightening the second lockdown?

This affects almost all protagonists in the logistics sector, as the changed life since March is exhausting. With the speed reduction we experienced again in October and the currently looming full stop, a feeling of futility is spreading in many places. The results of the November survey on the logistics indicator clearly show this. Even though the share of e-commerce is growing disproportionately, the loss of order volume from industry and trade is not being compensated.

BVL Still Optimistic

Let us still look optimistically towards next spring. Yes, the lockdown will last into January, perhaps even a little longer. But the approval of vaccines and the start of vaccinations is foreseeable, and vaccine logistics is already running at full speed. Economic life will not come to a standstill as strongly as it did in March/April 2020. The first half of 2021 is still fraught with many uncertainties, but the growth engine is already running – albeit at lower speeds than we all wish.

Economy and society have been shaken vigorously in recent months. In Germany, the government has financially cushioned the damage for companies and employees as best as possible. The value chains have largely proven to be robust, and the adaptability and speed were significantly higher than one would have expected before the crisis. Maintaining this hands-on mentality, staying agile, and pursuing change processes with creativity and systematic approach – these are the positive takeaways from the crisis.

I wish you and all of us a good start into the new year already now.”

BVL Logistics Indicator Q4 2020

Photo: © BVL / Caption: Prof. Dr. Ing. Thomas Wimmer during the BVL Logistics Congress in Berlin in October 2020

Prof. Dr.-Ing. Thomas Wimmer was born in 1959 and grew up in Hamburg. After studying mechanical engineering at the University of Hanover, he obtained his doctorate part-time at the Technical University of Berlin from 1985 to 1988. Since 1984, Wimmer has been active in industrial logistics: at BMW in Dingolfing, since 1989 at Sauer-Sundstrand in Neumünster, and since 1993 at Bremer Vulkan shipyard. In 1997, he joined Proventus Consulting as a partner, in 1999 as managing director of the Federal Association of Logistics (BVL) in Bremen, where he was appointed chairman of the management in 2004. In March 2020, he was elected chairman of the board of BVL. In addition to his professional activities, Wimmer has been a lecturer for applied procurement, production, and contract logistics since 2004. In 2009, he was appointed honorary professor at the University of Bremen. From 2015 to 2020, he was Vice President of the European Logistics Association (ELA) in Brussels. Since 2018, he has been volunteering as Chairman of the Board of the MX Manufacturing Excellence network. www.bvl.de