Federal Association BIEK Releases KEP Study 2022

The courier, express, and parcel market (KEP) in Germany grew disproportionately strong for the second consecutive year in 2021. The volume of shipments increased by around 460 million KEP shipments, totaling 4.51 billion shipments transported. The growth drivers were, as in the previous year, the shipments to end consumers (B2C shipments). This and many other results are provided by the KEP Study 2022, which the Federal Association of Parcel and Express Logistics (BIEK) presented today in Berlin.

(Berlin) The volume of parcel, express, and courier shipments in Germany grew by 11.2% in 2021, marking the second consecutive year of double-digit growth. The total revenue of the KEP industry rose by 14.3% to a new record value of 26.9 billion euros. In 2021, a total of 266,000 people were employed by parcel service providers, 10,800 more than the previous year.

Peaks and Troughs in Growth

Especially in the first months of 2021, the political COVID measures and the public and economic restrictions directly impacted the KEP shipment volume. The parcel services made a fundamental contribution to maintaining the supply of the population, particularly in the early months of 2021. Due to the lockdown, which lasted into the second quarter of 2021, growth in the entire KEP market remained at a very high level (almost 20%) during the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, it was only 3.8%.

Growth Driver B2C Shipments

The strong growth (+16.6%) made B2C shipments the main driver of overall KEP shipment growth again. The main reason for this development is the dynamically growing online trade, which also received another boost in 2021 due to COVID. A significant recovery or catch-up effect can be observed in B2B shipments (shipping from business to business) (2021: +5.7% compared to 2020: -1.5%). However, this recovery trend weakened over the course of 2021. The reasons for this are supply chain problems, the shortage of semiconductors, and related production restrictions in customer segments that are important for the KEP market.

Expected 5.7 Billion Shipments in 2026

By 2026, an average annual growth of 4.7% in shipment volume to 5.7 billion shipments is expected. However, no forecast can currently be made for 2022: The current trends and changes in the markets, which have not been seen for several decades (Ukraine war, lockdown in China, rising price rates, higher energy costs, and the resulting uncertainty among consumers), have currently triggered a demand shock and do not allow for a reasonable and reliable forecast of market development for 2022.

The Chairman on the Current Situation

Regarding the current situation in the KEP industry, BIEK Chairman Marten Bosselmann states: “Rarely has it been as clear as in recent years that parcel services can be relied upon when it matters. During the pandemic, they keep the daily lives of people and the economy running. The uncertainties caused by Brexit are still being managed by the industry in a sovereign and flexible manner.

And now this: We are speechless in the face of the war that has erupted in the middle of Europe. The human suffering in Ukraine deeply affects us all, and what is happening there also poses uncertainties for the KEP industry in Germany on an unprecedented scale. The consequences of the war are currently incalculable. Together with other uncertainty factors, this makes forecasting market development in the coming years extremely difficult. One thing is certain, though: In the future, KEP services will continue to assert themselves as a rock in the surf in supplying the population, even if this will be associated with unprecedented challenges.”

KEP Industry as a Pioneer in Trends

Another focus of the KEP Study 2022 is the role of KEP companies as innovators and pioneers in the B2B market. For years, online trade has been the main focus when it comes to the development and significance of the KEP market. The role of KEP companies as innovators in the B2B market and as pioneers in trends, such as sustainability, has been far too little acknowledged. The present study analyzes the following areas and supports them with illustrative practical examples: automation and digitization in transshipment centers and depots, sustainability through cargo bikes and e-delivery vehicles, the role of KEP for stationary trade, healthcare logistics, and the transport of high-quality food.

The KEP Study has been published annually since 2004 and is prepared by KE-CONSULT Kurte&Esser GbR on behalf of the Federal Association of Parcel and Express Logistics. It provides a current and comprehensive picture of market development, trends, and the economic significance of the entire KEP industry in Germany.

Download the study (click on the image):