Truck Toll Mileage Index in December 2022: -4.9% Compared to the Previous Month

According to the Federal Office for Logistics and Mobility (BALM) and the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), the mileage of toll-required trucks with at least four axles on federal highways decreased by 4.9% in December 2022 compared to November 2022, adjusted for calendar and season. This is the strongest decline since the drop in mileage in April 2020 due to the Corona pandemic. Compared to the same month last year, December 2021, the calendar-adjusted truck toll mileage index fell by 6.1%. Truck mileage on highways provides early indications of the current economic development in the industry. The significant decline in December 2022 may also have been influenced by the onset of winter and high absenteeism due to illness.

(Köln/Wiesbaden) The truck toll mileage index is suitable not only nationwide but also in some federal states as an early indicator of economic development. Especially in the industrially shaped rural states, there is a clear correlation between regional truck toll mileage and regional sales in the manufacturing sector. In the city-states and the less industrially shaped federal states, the correlation is weaker. The largest decline in truck toll mileage compared to the previous month, adjusted for calendar and season, was 6.5% in December 2022 in Lower Saxony. There was also a relatively strong decrease in truck mileage compared to the previous month in Bavaria (-5.0%), Thuringia (-4.8%), and Saxony (-4.8%).

Monthly Truck Toll Mileage Indices by Selected Federal States, December 2022

Calendar and seasonally adjusted change compared to the previous month

Cross-Border Trips to and from the Czech Republic and Denmark with the Strongest Decline Compared to November 2022

Since the reporting month of April 2022, truck toll indices for cross-border trips have also been available. These measure the number of entries and exits across the German border. In December 2022, cross-border traffic overall decreased by 4.8% compared to November 2022, adjusted for calendar and season. The strongest decline in cross-border trips to and from the Czech Republic was -8.3%. The cross-border truck traffic to and from Denmark also saw a relatively strong decrease of -8.1% compared to the previous month.

Monthly Truck Toll Indices for Cross-Border Trips, December 2022

Calendar and seasonally adjusted change compared to the previous month

The indices for cross-border trips are published monthly simultaneously with the existing truck toll mileage index on the website of the Federal Statistical Office. The time series with unadjusted as well as calendar and seasonally adjusted values begins in July 2018.

Notes on the Relationship Between Truck Traffic and Economic Development:

Economic activity generates and requires transport services. There is therefore a clear relationship between the truck toll mileage index and indices of economic activity, particularly the industrial production index. The truck toll mileage index thus provides a rough approximation of the development of industrial production. Since it is available about a month earlier than the production index, it serves as an early indicator of current economic development. However, a breakdown of the results by economic sectors is not possible.

As part of the truck toll collection, digital process data is generated, among other things, on the mileage of toll-required trucks in Germany. The Federal Office for Logistics and Mobility has developed the truck toll mileage index from this, which traces the course of mileage. The Federal Statistical Office prepares the index as a seasonally adjusted economic indicator for Germany and the 16 federal states.

In addition to the monthly index, an experimental daily truck toll mileage index is published at the national level. Information on the daily index can be found in the joint paper by the Federal Statistical Office, the Federal Office for Logistics and Mobility, and the Deutsche Bundesbank titled “Daily Truck Toll Mileage Index from Digital Process Data of the Truck Toll Collection” in issue 4/2020 of the scientific magazine WISTA of the Federal Statistical Office. Furthermore, the website of the Federal Statistical Office offers an explanatory video and a podcast on the topic. Background information for the classification of the federal state results is provided in the paper “The Truck Toll Mileage Index for Federal States: A New Economic Indicator for Regional Industrial Activity” in the WISTA issue 1/2022.

Photo: © BALM