Study on Addressing the Shortage of Drivers Published

Capacity in transport logistics is tight and in high demand. The shortage of qualified personnel has been one of the biggest challenges in road freight transport for many years. In February 2022, the consortium study on “Addressing Capacity Bottlenecks in Logistics with a Focus on Driving Personnel” was initiated under the leadership of Professors Wolfgang Stölzle from Logistics Advisory Experts (a spin-off of the University of St. Gallen), Thorsten Schmidt from the Technical University of Dresden, and Christian Kille from the Institute for Applied Logistics at the Technical University of Würzburg-Schweinfurt (THWS).

(Arbon, Dresden, Würzburg) The high significance of the topic is also underscored by the composition of the consortium: 16 companies, 5 associations, and an operator of a digital matching platform for employers and skilled workers. The detailed results are now available.

Estimated €10 billion in additional costs for the German economy due to missing drivers in 2022
First of all: The economic impact of the driver crisis is immense! 32 identified effects of the driver shortage induced an estimated cost increase of about 3 percent in the logistics sector in 2022. This alone led to an additional burden of around €10 billion for the German economy last year. This is shown by the results of a specially developed model.

70,000 drivers missing in 2023

A model specifically developed for the study not only quantifies the shortage of driving personnel based on current statistics but also allows for a forecast of the development of the driver shortage. From the available data, it was calculated that currently more than 70,000 truck drivers are missing. In 2022, there were about 53,000. The shortage of drivers is expected to increase by around 20,000 drivers each year. Relatively speaking, this shortage is greater than in nursing or education.

70,000 skilled workers missing in driving personnel in 2023

Over 40 causes for the shortage of driving personnel identified

The broadly based analysis produced an extensive catalog of 40 different causes that can be directly (deployment and recruitment of driving personnel) or indirectly (organization and market development) attributed to the shortage of driving personnel. The working conditions, the work environment, and the public perception of the profession stand out particularly.

19 measures can help

As part of the investigations, numerous measures to address the shortage of driving personnel were analyzed and evaluated. 19 of these measures have high potential and enjoy particular popularity. These include political measures such as expanding parking spaces, company measures such as appointing a specific person responsible for the concerns of driving personnel, and prospective measures such as expanding the potential of digital platforms. Through targeted measures, existing personnel can be retained and new personnel recruited.

As helpful as the measures are, they will not bring absolute relief in the short term. Cross-company optimization processes, along with increased transparency and the use of digital applications, currently hold the greatest potential for addressing the capacity bottleneck in road freight transport. Existing digital solutions can already better plan available capacities if their potential is utilized more effectively – also for economic and ecological reasons. In contrast, little relief is expected from autonomous driving in the medium term.

Truck drivers are generally satisfied with their profession

Truck drivers are satisfied with their job

A survey of driving personnel has shown: Once a decision has been made for the profession, there is a prevailing belief that the right choice has been made. Since most respondents found their job through colleagues, targeted measures to improve the professional image also contribute to personnel recruitment and the satisfaction of drivers.

The key findings of the study at a glance:

• Due to the shortage of driving personnel, additional costs of around €10 billion were incurred for the German economy in 2022.
• In 2023, more than 70,000 truck drivers are expected to be missing.
• Over 40 different causes are directly and indirectly responsible for this.
• The study describes and evaluates 19 practical, potential-rich, and prospective measures for all stakeholder groups to address the shortage of driving personnel.
• In addition to measures for recruiting new personnel and improving the professional image, digital solutions for optimizing existing capacities are indispensable.
• A current survey shows: Truck drivers are generally satisfied with their career choice, but there is a concrete need for improvement in the framework conditions.

The study is available for free download starting today:

Download Study

Photo: © Logistics Advisory Experts/Kravag