project44 Highlights the Critical Situation at the Panama Canal

project44, the platform for Supply Chain Visibility, analyzes the situation at the Panama Canal. This is a crucial hub for global supply chains, through which 40 percent of the world’s shipping traffic is handled. Drought continues to prevail in this area, and sanctions affecting daily shipping traffic in the canal further complicate the situation.

(Munich) Already in August, the daily passage was reduced from 36 to 32 ships. As of November 1, 2023, a further limitation to 25 ships per day was implemented, representing a capacity reduction of more than 30 percent. The renewed restrictions are leading to increased congestion and extended transit times.

Increase in Waiting Container Ships

The recent capacity reduction has led to a significant increase in the number of waiting container ships. As of November 30, 2023, over 40 container ships are waiting to pass through the canal.

More Ships Anchored at the Ports of Colón and Balboa

The increasing congestion is causing more and more ships to anchor outside the Port of Balboa (southern end) or the Port of Colón (northern end). The number of anchored ships began to rise in August, due both to the high volume during the peak season and the then-existing capacity restrictions of 32 ships per day. Throughout the peak season, the number of anchored ships fluctuated. Although the peak season has ended since October, the number continued to rise sharply in November.

In the week of November 12, 2023, more than 90 ships had to anchor in Balboa or Colón, representing a 100 percent increase compared to early June and a 143 percent increase since September 17, 2023. It is also highly likely that this number will remain at a high level. A backlog is already forming, further straining the situation.

Extended Transit Times

Despite earlier restrictions, the average transit time through the canal has remained constant overall. This is particularly true for northbound traffic, which mainly consists of imports to the US East Coast. The Panama Canal Authority reiterated that the restrictions primarily affected ships that did not plan their passage before arriving at the canal.

In the week starting November 19, 2023, the maximum transit time saw a remarkable increase of 250 percent: from 1.7 days to 6 days. While this may be considered a possible outlier, a significant increase of 50 percent in the average transit time is still evident.

Challenges Will Remain

The challenges that the Panama Canal poses for global supply chains are unlikely to diminish in the foreseeable future. Despite the currently lower shipping of sea freight, the canal is facing the longest transit times and the highest anchorage rates in recent history.

Given the expected further restrictions due to the ongoing drought, it is advisable to consider alternative shipping routes—especially for time-sensitive goods. Shippers in the United States may find a faster solution through rail or truck transport than by passing through the canal. In recent years, the volume has increasingly shifted to the ports on the East Coast, while the West Coast has struggled with high congestion rates and strikes. However, project44 expects that most of the volume will shift back to the West Coast if complications with the canal persist.

Title Photo: © Marine Traffic / Image Caption: The situation at the Panama Canal on December 5, 2023, around 3:00 PM CET