Cargo Alliance ELVIS warns against hasty reduction of the fleet

The European Cargo Alliance of International Forwarders (ELVIS) AG sees a risk of capacity bottlenecks and an explosion in transport prices in its presented market report. Due to the declining overall mileage in truck traffic, there is an oversupply of cargo space with decreasing revenue expectations. As a result, fleets are being reduced, which would not be available on short notice in the event of a market revival. If the spring revival turns out to be unexpectedly strong, exploding prices on the spot market and tight freight capacities are imminent.

(Alzenau) “Without positive signals from the European Central Bank in the form of falling interest rates or a stimulus package from German politics, the recession will continue to be fueled, and for many companies, this means a slow death,” says Nikolja Grabowski, CEO of ELVIS AG. Although a spring revival is underway, it will fall significantly short of those of previous years. The negative forecasts from the German economy are further dampening companies’ willingness to invest.

Although, for example, production in the crisis-hit construction sector has slightly increased according to the ELVIS report compared to December 2022 (+0.8 percent), it remains at an extremely low level. In contrast, the general business situation has continued to deteriorate compared to January 2023 (ifo business climate: -5.4 percent; ifo business situation: -7.8 percent; ifo business expectations: -2.8 percent). Sales figures in online retail are also declining again after a slight recovery in the spring of last year (-6.7 percent compared to December 2022). “The still extremely tense economic situation in Germany, combined with new burdens such as the truck toll, is also reflected in the prospects of the logistics industry. There is an urgent need for action here,” warns Grabowski.

For the area of “goods transport by road,” the market report of the forwarding alliance sees a critical development. Both the ifo business climate (-19.2 percent), the ifo business situation (-34 percent), and the ifo business expectations (-31.8 percent) have significantly deteriorated compared to January 2022. Here, too, the tense situation of the forwarding companies is reflected. “Many forwarding companies will not be able to keep up with this development, leading to an increase in insolvencies and an even tighter availability of cargo space,” says Grabowski. Companies that have a large share of their own routes in operation are particularly hard hit. The large fleet has become a burden in recent months. The ELVIS report suggests questioning the size of the own fleet in relation to the use of fixed subcontractors and adjusting it if necessary. ELVIS therefore also recommends that forwarding companies consider other industries than those currently served and potentially establish themselves internationally to reduce fluctuations in their own utilization.

Some light at the end of the tunnel

In the market analysis of the forwarding alliance, there is also some light at the end of the tunnel. The declining energy costs in the past half-year are now reflected in falling wholesale sales and producer prices. Consumer prices are still rising, but at a significantly slower pace. There is also a slight easing in fuel prices (November to December 2023 – Diesel: -4.4 percent; LNG: -9.7 percent).

Photo: © ELVIS / Image caption: Nikolja Grabowski, CEO of ELVIS AG