BIEK KEP Study 2021 Shows Enormous Growth in the Parcel Market

The Federal Association of Parcel and Express Logistics (BIEK) has presented its KEP Study 2021. The courier, express, and parcel market (KEP) in Germany experienced a sudden growth in 2020. The volume of shipments increased by around 400 million KEP shipments, with over 4 billion shipments transported in total. The main driver of growth was shipments to end consumers (B2C).

(Berlin) The KEP shipment volume rose by 10.9% in 2020. This marks the first double-digit growth in the last twenty years. Similarly, the total revenue of the KEP industry increased by 10.5%, reaching 23.5 billion euros last year. In 2020, a total of 255,200 employees were employed in the companies, 10,600 more than the previous year.

Some Effective Numbers:

• Shipment volume 2020: sudden increase of 400 million shipments (+10.9%) to 4.05 billion shipments
• Per day: more than 13 million shipments to over 8 million recipients
• Total revenue 2020: 23.5 billion euros (+10.5%)
• Employees 2020: 10,600 new jobs
• Forecast 2021: expected 320 million additional shipments
• Forecast 2025: around 5.7 billion shipments expected in 2025

B2C Shipment Volume Increases by 18.6% in the National Parcel Market

In the national parcel market, a 18.6% increase was recorded in the B2C segment in 2020. This strong growth makes B2C parcel shipments the main driver of overall KEP shipment growth. In the overall market, i.e., in national and international courier, express, and parcel shipments, B2C shipments even increased by 19.7%. The main reason for these developments is the dynamically growing online trade, which received an additional boost from the Corona pandemic.

In the B2B segment, i.e., in shipments where both sender and recipient are businesses, the situation is different: The shipment volume in the national B2B parcel market decreased by 5.2% in 2020. This significant decline can be explained by the weak economic development in the stationary retail sector due to the pandemic. However, in the overall B2B market (national and international courier, express, and parcel shipments), the decline is much smaller at -1.5%, which is due to the positive development in international shipments and the express segment.

Outlook for 2021: Around 320 Million Additional Shipments

For 2021, the KEP study forecasts a total of around 320 million additional shipments. This corresponds to an increase of about 8%. By 2025, an annual shipment growth of 7% to 5.68 billion shipments is expected. The medium-term forecast has thus been raised: At the beginning of the Corona pandemic, an annual shipment growth of around 4% was still predicted.

Parcel Service Providers Have Proven Their Worth in the Crisis

Regarding the impact of the Corona pandemic on the parcel industry, Marten Bosselmann, Chairman of BIEK, explains: “The pandemic has had a lasting impact on the KEP market. The rapidly increasing shipment volumes are intensifying the challenges associated with delivery in urban areas and city centers. The demand for innovative solutions for urban logistics is rising. By 2025, we will also need an additional 12,000 employees per year – before the Corona pandemic, only a need for ‘just’ 7,000 additional employees per year was expected.

KEP companies are continuously adapting to new challenges and are investing heavily in future topics. These include qualified workforce, optimization of working conditions, digitalization processes, alternative drive technologies, increasingly sustainable and efficient urban logistics, and much more. Especially in the crisis, parcel services have proven to be reliable and flexible partners: for recipients working from home, for companies that rely on the reliable transport of goods, and for the healthcare sector. This will not change in the future.”

Focus Brexit: Analysis of Additional Efforts and Costs

Due to current events – since January 1, 2021, the United Kingdom is no longer part of the EU internal market and customs union – Brexit is again a focal topic alongside the impacts of Corona. For KEP companies in Germany and the UK, Brexit already caused costs of up to 240 million euros last year. The study analyzes the sources of costs and additional efforts and provides an optimistic outlook that processes will continue to stabilize over the course of the year. However, additional efforts and extra costs will remain.

The KEP study has been published annually since 2004 and is prepared by KE-CONSULT Kurte&Esser GbR on behalf of the Federal Association of Parcel and Express Logistics. It provides a current and comprehensive picture of market development, trends, and the economic significance of the entire KEP industry in Germany.

Download the Study

Photo © BIEK/Frank Nürnberger / Image Caption: Elena Marcus-Engelhardt (BIEK), Marten Bosselmann (BIEK), Dr. Klaus Esser (KE-CONSULT)